Mobile Search Still has a long way to go...about 17,000kms

In 2008 and early 2009 I was a mobile skeptic. I argued on a number of posts that that true mobile Internet was still years away. Then in Nov 2009 Google bought AdMob and I ate humble pie - admitting that the mobile Internet was here to stay. As a convert I became a near fanatic writing a two part piece on Tnooz (part 1 here, part 2 here) on the mobile revolution and what to expect next. I also predicted that this year mobile would "die" as a separate category and simply be subsumed into the "regular" internet.

But yesterday I was brought down to earth again and reminded how there is still so much that needs to be done to make the mobile Internet ubiquitous and universally useful.

I found myself yesterday at the TRAVELtech conference with a problem. The sole of my shoe was beginning to fall off. Rapidly. I was about to go on stage to present but became worried that between the audience and the stage my sole would fall off completely making me look more hobo and hopeless than serious and CEO like. So I did want any normal exec of the second decade of the 21st century would do. I pulled out my iphone and Googled "shoe repairs sussex st" (with sussex st being the major downtown city street behind me). I then followed up by prompting Google to accept and read my location using the GPS and manually accept that I was in "Sydney,NSW". Below is a screenshot of the search results

If you are on a device that cant see the image above, let me type out the text for you. It says

"Did you mean A B & C Shoe Repairs, Croft Rd, Crowborough, Sussex TN6 1DL United Kingdom"

A quick follow up Google search indicates that this particular shoe store is about 17,000km from my current location. Clearly the word Sussex confused the search algorithm. But how? How did the world "sussex" override that Google new exactly where I was via the GPS and new the broad region through by selection of Sydney. Either way, I was forced to put down the phone and try to find some double sided tape to save the day. I am still a mobile fan and believer but am reminded that there is much to doo before the shoe and the BOOT are fully satisfied by the phone.

Google brand bidding war extends to tourism orgs

I am an only child so sibling rivalry is a bit of a mystery to me. That said I remember some very vigorous games of football and role playing games against cousins. Nothing beat the satisfaction of crash tackling a cousin during a family event. I imagine that is part of the motivation for this screenshot from a Google search page. On it you can see Tourism NSW bidding for the search term "tourism vic". I would love to be in the room when the head of marketing from Tourism Vic calls their cousin in NSW and demands a please explain....

Tnooz Post: Authority and Page Rank in Google is changing, are you ready?

New Tnooz post live titled "Is travel ready for the Google Page Rank overhaul?". In the post I discuss Google Places and speculate on what it means for new elements in the page rank alogrithm including the tastegraph, sociograph, memegraph, expertgraph, genomegraph, contextgraph and a lot of other made up words new media concepts. Read the full post here.

Profile of Google's Claire Hatton

The Sydney Morning Herald is carrying a detailed profile of Google's Claire Hatton. Hatton is the Industry lead for Travel, Government and Local in Australia & New Zealand. Worth a read.

Google Preview - another day another change in Google search

We are all talking about Google Places as a revolution in search (Tnooz story here). See the above shot where my search results for "Time In Madrid" shows a variety of links with a preview magnifying glass icon next to each link. Hover over a link and a preview appears on the right.

Where Google Places is clearly designed to drive more paid search activity, the Google preview functionality looks better suited to questions/searches that are not highly monetised (like a what time is it question.

The bigger story here is that Google is showing a new and heightened level of change, testing and innovation in their product.

See my Tnooz post after the launch of Google Instant for more

Tnooz: the future of search is multi-destinational and multi-dimensional

Tnooz is one year old. My latest 1000+ word piece is live called "Google Instant is just the beginning in the search revolution in travel"

In this post I discuss the history and future of search and the role Google Instant is playing. I propose a future that has search being based on more than one destination site (multi-destinational) and more than one way to measure authority and trusted content (multi-dimensional).

check out the full post here.

Stories from TRAVELtech: contemplating the parallel inter-verse

I was at TRAVELtech last week wondering if there is a parallel universe on the internet (inter-verse) that I am not part of. In the Internet that I live in the following rules apply:

• Search: Not all my searches start on Google;
• Starting: Portals are not a starting point but might be a destination (ie Yahoo Finance);
• Creating: I am creating more and more content very day – but writing less and less on my blog;
• Reading: Newspaper sites are fading from view in favour of RSS and news aggregators; and
• Accessing: I am accessing the internet all over place – via my computer, my Apple TV, my Xbox, my blackberry and more.

Three presentations at TRAVELtech reminded me that many people online who do not adhere to these rules and therefore exist in a parallel inter-verse:

• Mark Higginson of Neilsen Online reminded me that a third of Internet users do not use social networks. For these users (and there are a lot of them) the Internet is not a place for inspiration or interaction. It is a functional place. A place to consume content, check details and make purchases. A place to do things and find things out, not to engage, share and...well... just hang out;
• Rohan Lund of Yahoo!7 says that Yahoo! is continuing to expand world-wide as a place for people to start on the Internet. That the portal is still as strong and steady starting point on the Internet for hundreds of millions of users; and
• Warren Livingstone (founder of the Fanatics) proved that the secret to community was tents more than tweets. That communities did not need social media that much to grow and foster.
  

The obvious question upon re-discovering the parallel inter-verse is whether or not it is a place in itself or is it just a staging area. Is it a place where newer users start their internet experience – only to soon progress to the "real" Internet or do these users stay in the functional and controlled parallel inter-verse that is about more than outcomes that experience?

The reason why this is important to think about is that if the parallel inter-verse is a permanent place rather than a staging area then online travel companies need to plan for a different future. I keep talking about a future for online travel around moving from transaction engines to recommendation engines. Around helping consumers move from answering closed questions ("how much for a hotel in Melbourne?") to open ones ("where do I go next?"). A future where some combination of the tastegraph and sociograph combine to make online social interaction as (if not more) rewarding than off. If the functionally focused parallel inter-verse is a permanent place then there is more than one future. A long term functional internet means product people spending time on retail efficiency and on site content products rather than recommendations and syndication. It means more off-line marketing and brand based marketing. It will mean more in website design and less in apps, social media and under the hood data work. My guess is the parallel inter-verse is temporary. That functional only internet use will fade away to be replaced by rules like my rules. What do you think? Is there a parallel inter-verse (or I am making stuff up) and do we have to rewrite the future of the online travel business to take account?

BTW - thanks to Brianam on Flickr for the photo. The context behind the sign (which he says is real) is that Universe St was closed and traffic was being diverted to Rainbow st.

Hatton of Google on Mobile and ITA

Claire Hatton - Google's Industry lead for Travel, Local and Government in AU/NZ - spoke last week at the Asia Pacific Aviation Outlook Summit. In the speech she had a lot to say about mobile and a little to say about the ITA deal.

On the mobile web Hatton's advice was clear - if you do not have a mobile strategy including an app, then get one. She said (and confirmed via twitter) that "mobile searches on some search terms are higher than on PC for Google in Japan and Indonesia.". In some critical Asian markets half of the internet connections are via mobile. She conceded that iPhone was the largest platform but reminded the audience not to forget about Android. Google are claiming that they are "activating 160k android devices a day".

This has translated into consumers engaging in simultaneous consumption of media. True multi-media. Hatton quoted a Nielsen stat that 49% of Australians are online at the same time as they are watching television.

On the ITA deal she was more circumspect. In her defence, the ink is barely dry on the contract. While she would not say what Google intends to do with the product, she was very clear on Google's rationale for making the acquisition.

"because we believe the flight search experience is not good enough"

Understandably she would not be drawn on what the product would look like but did say that it would improve that qualified nature of click throughs to supplier and intermediary sites. Indicating that the likely pressure will be more on other meta search companies rather than OTAs.

As a side note. Later that day an industry insider told me that Google would not be able to bring the ITA functionality to Asia any time soon. They told me that that ITA product does not have the net fare connectivity to be competitive in air search in Asia.

The BOOT at Asia Pacific Aviation Outlook Summit 27-30 July - Sydney

I will be speaking this week at the Australia Pacific Aviation Outlook Summit 2010 at the Four Seasons hotel in Sydney. The conference runs July 27-30. Day three of the conference (July 29) is the "Travel Technology & Distribution day".

Also speaking on the Tech and Distribution day are:

• Richard Noon (CEO Webjet);
• Claire Hatton (Head of Travel, Government and Local for Google);
• Steve Sherlock (MD Oodles);
• Shashank Nigam (SimplyFlying) and
  
• Martin Symes (CEO Wego)

I am in two sessions

Solo at 235 pm on

The role of airlines and distributors in the “inspiration funnel”

* What are the four phases of online travel?
* How consumers get from an idea to going away and making a booking
* The role of airlines, tourism authorities and OTAs in the inspiration funnel

and on a panel at 440 on

Leveraging social media to create customer interaction and brand awareness

* Making better use of existing channels vs investing resources in newer distribution avenues
* How well do suppliers understand the value proposition of social media?
* Brand management through social media
* Integrating User Generated Content into the booking path

Hat tip in advance to Martin Collings of the Shearwater blog who first introduced me to the role of airlines in the bow tie/inspiration funnel.

Google and ITA: deal confirmed, BOOT was right, read what the pundits think

While I was minding my business on a work trip in Taiwan, teams of Google lawyers were dotting i's, crossing t's, cutting cheques and making rich people of out of the founders of flight search software company ITA. Overnight Tnooz carried the story that the deal was done for $700mm. This makes it Google's fourth largest acquisition (behind Admob, Youtube and DoubleClick). At risks of self indulgence, the BOOT first broke the rumour that Google was planning a push into travel meta-search.

With the deal done it is time for the pundits to pontificate analyse. Kevin May at Tnooz central has quickly collected the thoughts and analysis of five (and counting) Tnooz nodes/pundits including me. You can catch all of our thoughts and feelings on this deal over here.

Here is what I had to say at Tnooz

In my view the Google/ITA deal is a response to two challenges Google is facing in search generally and travel search in particular

1. Search is no longer the number one activity online. Social networking is. Part of this is the rise of networking but part of it is that search continues to operate in an environment where one site has the answer. Where you type in a search term and Google points you to the one site with the answer. Search queries are becoming more complex and more open ended. The answer to an open ended search query is unlikely to be found on one site. Google knows this is especially true for travel. It knows that it risks losing travel open ended travel search queries to social networks and meta-search. China is a great example of this trend with social networking planning a greater and greater role in travel search and discovery activity. Google knows they need a means for showing multi-site answers to search queries; and
2. Meta-search is building loyalty. In the early days of meta-search, the business model was almost pure traffic arbitrage (I discussed this back in 2007). Meta companies bought traffic off Google for one price and sold it to suppliers and OTAs for another. Meta-search profitability was determined by their ability to buy clicks from Google cheaper than they could be sold back to OTAs and suppliers. But in the last year or so meta-search has started to built loyalty and alternative marketing channels. To generate direct brand traffic and affiliate partner referrals in particular. I have heard reports from a number of meta's of dramatic increases in customer loyalty and direct traffic. Kayak themselves spoke of this phenomenon to me as early as 2008 just after the sidestep deal. To combat meta's growing loyalty Google clearly felt the pressure to bring pricing and the details of offers one step closer in search results

While the deal may help Google solve these two challenges - in presents Google with two new challenges

1. Competing with customers: Meta and other travel search companies spend a lot of money with Google. So too the suppliers and OTAs. There will be a fear and concern here from all of these Google cheque writers the Google might be planning to go direct and cut out more and more of the intermediary market; and
2. Execution and retention: Travel search technology is very very complicated. This is proved by Google's decision to buy rather than build. But each time a company makes a buy vs build decision they open themselves to the challenge of retention and execution within the acquired company. Once you have made very rich people at the core of the asset that you have bought - you need to work very hard to either keep them engaged or train up your old organisation to know everything there is to know about the new one.

More analysis and commentary over at Tnooz.

[reminder my views are mine alone and not the views of Orbitz or HotelClub]

Google to buy ITA Software (report). If true Google's meta-search march is on!

Back in March care of a reliable source I broke the rumour/story that Google was about to launch a travel meta-search product. Then Tnooz broke the story that the rumour was true and Google was seen inserting pricing and supplier bidding information to google map search results.

The biggest worry that Google has in getting into the travel meta-search space is how to catch up in technology. It is important to realise that each developer that Google diverts away from the core algorithm and ad platform carries a large opportunity cost. Even in a world of twenty percent time, Google is very conscious of the cost of putting developers on the expensive and complicate work involved in specific sector search rather than general search. The biggest question hanging over a travel meta-search play therefore was how would Google find the time and resources to build the product.

Looks like we might have the answer - and it has nothing to do with "building".

Story coming out of BusinessWeek that Google is in talks to buy ITA Software, one of the worlds biggest independent travel booking software makers who count Orbitz (disclosure), Bing, India's cleartrip, Expedia's Hotwire and Kayak as customers. Would certainly provide Google with all the tech they would need to launch a top flight meta-product. And on the entertainment front, would make the relationship between Microsoft and Google even more interesting.

hat tip to Paul Fisher who alerted me to the story via Twitter

901 not out

100 more posts live on the BOOT. 4 years, 200,000 plus words, 150,000 visitors, 240,000 page views and still going. In my regular "not out series" recap I post a few reminders and highlights form the last 100 posts. It started with 101 not out and continued with 201, 301, 401, 501. 601, 701 and 801 not out. Here we go....

Buy buy buy. We may still be waiting for the mega deal but the tuck-ins are everywhere

• Zuji/Travelocity bought Indian based Travelguru
• WRI went for $340mm
• TripAdvisor went further into China with Kuxun
  

Bust bust bust. The Global F'n Crisis had casualties

• Roamfree went into administration as the BOOT had to press delete on comment after comment
• Offline travel maybe dying but I had 3+3 recommendations on how it can save itself
  

Talk talk talk. The BOOT went conference crazy

• Talked EveryYou at WebInTravel - even though a back injury prevented by from actually going
• Joined the Kevin and Gene army of nodes and wrote 8 tnooz posts on subjects as varied as Augmented reality, Lonely Planet, Google, New Zealand and the Do over
• Overheard intermediaries and suppliers sharing war stories at NoVacancy
• EveryYou launched at TRAVELTech (see below)
• Another amazing week at PhoCusWright
• Spoke at Ad:Tech
  

Track track track - kept my eye on big Asian online players that are active in the market but quiet in the results arena.

• Tracking Google - broke the story first that Google meta-search was coming
  
• Tracking AsiaRooms and their TUI A&S stablemates
• Tracking Agoda, finally getting my hands on a Citi reporting estimating their turnover at $244mm for 2009 and early integration with Booking
  
• Tracking MakeMyTrip and claims they have made US$5mm off $500mm in gross sales
• Tracking Lonely Planet and their online plans
• Tracking Kayak and the private sale plans and follow up with Jetsetter CEO Drew Patterson
  

Theory theory theory

• Laid out my predications for 2010
  
• I introduced the concept of EveryYou - arguing that the future of online travel is “The development of a specific and targeted recommendation of one based on the unique combination of desires, needs and interests of each individual at any moment in time”
• Posted my thoughts on the secrets of innovation
• Mused on my 3 rules for a UGC start-up
• Pondered what next for Google in online video marketing
  

Puff Puff Puff - away from the industry I also posted

• More business traveller tips
• More seat reviews
• Introduced the SkyMall follies
• First Class is dead!

I haven't run out of things to say yet, so if you're still listening, then I will keep typing.

Rumour True! Google trialling meta-search in maps for hotels

Who knew that a BOOT rumour (admittedly one from a trusted source) could prove to be true. I wrote last week that I had a good but unsubstantiated story that Google was planning a launch of travel meta-search. Now we have confirmation that they are putting prices into the display of hotel results with priced links to booking engines. Not all users are seeing this functionality (in classic Google multi-variant testing) preventing me from giving you a screenshot of my own, but over at "eWeek Google Watch" you can see some screenshots of a "hotels in new york" search with prices and meta-search style functionality.

Kayak, Wego, Hotelscombined, Sprice and more - hold on to your algorithms this is going to be a bumpy ride!

More analysis over at Tnooz

PS - WOW I scored a TechCrunch link out of this

Google to launch travel meta-search in April according to unsubstantiated rumour

I heard an unsubstantiated rumour today. Someone told me something they heard from someone else that may know something. The rumour is that Google will be launching a travel meta-search product in the US next month (April). Now, let me say up front that this is nothing but rumour and I have not vetted it to anywhere near the levels of confirmation that a journalist would (may Kevin forgive me). Thought this would be a good chance to test out the power of the blog audience. Have any of you out there in blog land heard anything about Google going into travel meta-search in the coming weeks? Bing's doing it, maybe everybody should.

thanks to "This is a wake up call" for the great photo via flickr

BOOT eyefortravel interview: search, mobile, social networking, innovation, Asia and more part 2

Part 2 of pre-conference interview with with Ritesh Guptaof eyefortravel in the lead up to the TDS conference in Singapore April 28 & 29. Part 1 here.

Question - Can you provide an insight into how does search differ for mobile phones vis-a-vis PC? What according to you are the striking differences?

BOOT - The easy answer is location. A phone knows so much more about your current location than a PC. This gives mobile a huge advantage over PC search in servicing an immediate requirement. But there are challenges here too. A mobile can assume too much about a location. Just because I am travelling in Tokyo does not mean that I want the answer to the question to be in Japanese. The other challenge for mobile is that the platforms are still not uniform in display. Thankfully we are down to a much smaller list of mobile browsers/operating systems that previously but still there are differences between iphone, windows mobile, blackberry, palm and symbian which call challenges in display. This is where apps come in as content providers are trying to get around the browser and device compatibility by using apps to control display and information management to consumers.

Question - The progression of technology and innovation in the travel industry continues at a quickening pace and Asian countries are closing the gap on their western counterparts. What according to have been the major developments in this context in Asia?

BOOT - Innovation is always driven by local requirements and demand patterns. Therefore there are examples across Asia of markets driving product development well ahead of the US or Europe. India leads the world in online bus ticket sales and low cost carrier and traditional carrier display integration. Japan leads the world in online hotel bookings via mobile phones. China leads the world in call centre same day hotel bookings. The mistake many make in planning for innovation is to look to the technology first rather than the business need. As I discussed in this post the secret to innovation is as much about timing, social readiness and execution as it is about a great technology idea. Therefore the major development in Asia that is driving innovation is not a technology one it is a attitudinal shift and market maturity. A display of confidence within the Asian travel industry that dedicated market specific solutions can be put together to target customer needs rather than simply copying what the global OTAs are doing in Europe and America.

Question - What are you most looking forward to at TDS Asia? Who are you most looking forward to meeting at the event?

BOOT - Conferences are always about people watching and meeting. That is what I am looking forward to. The best person you meet at a good conference is the person you weren't expecting to meet. Someone you did not know that you needed to know - if you know what I mean :).

BOOT eyefortravel interview: search, mobile, social networking, innovation, Asia and more part 1

I have just completed an email interview with Ritesh Guptaof eyefortravel in the lead up to the TDS conference in Singapore April 28 & 29. Here is part 1 of our exchange (part 2 here).

Question - Do you think predicting user preferences is the biggest unsolved problem in online travel? How do you assess the integration of social search into online travel?

BOOT - I am a strong believer that all companies in online travel should be focusing on understanding users and working on predictive and recommendation engines. But it is a mistake to come at this from just a user preference angle. The trap that companies are falling into is thinking that consumers are still asking "closed" questions. Questions that can be answered with an easy or direct response. Questions like "how much for a flight to new york?, "which hotel should I stay in in Rome?". These are the questions consumers asked for the first 15 years of online travel. Now consumers are also asking open ended questions like "where should I go next?, "what is a good place to go this weekend?". Questions that require a more detailed answer and therefore a very detailed understanding of not only the preferences of the user but also the relationship between those preferences and the destinations available and the different versions of the individual that is searching (my concept of EveryYou). Social networking's role in this is the role that word of mouth has always played in marketing and travel purchases. A force that can be instrumental in a consumer's purchase decision which can be influenced, prodded, supported but never controlled. The difference between Social Networking marketing and word of mouth marketing is just speed. Social network is word of mouth at the speed of light.

Question - Today Google's algorithms are still quite a bit of a black box for professional search marketers. The semantic web should make it more efficient to create and manage online campaigns, because there will be less left to algorithmic interpretation. How do you assess this viewpoint?

BOOT - Google has won search - game over. There are countries were they are weaker (Japan, Korea, China for example) and products where they are weaker (local search and business listings for example) but let's not kid ourselves about who has won search. That said, "old search" is about providing a single destination as an answer to a question. Regardless of the search term, Google only presents a list of single answer destinations. If an answer to the search request is found through information from a combination of different websites then Google (or any search site for that matter) do not have the answer. The other constraint on Google and old search is the limited scope for incorporating and merging the latest up to date with results with older more trusted results. Google has been experimenting with incorporating real time search in their results (example here) but they have not yet figured out how to establish authority in real time search or change the display to be more than an never ending stream of updated information. The Semantic web should be part of the solution here but I still feel we are a while away from implementation because we have not figured out new rules for authority and new methods for display. Maybe Google have but there are just not saying yet!

Question - Google, which last year had introduced a new experiment on Google Labs called Google Social Search, has added a social element to Google Images. With Social Search, Google finds relevant public content from your friends and contacts and highlights it for you at the bottom of your search results. What is going to be the next big thing or trend in social search engine marketing?

BOOT - If you agree with my comments about that marketing of social networking is just like marketing through word of mouth but at the speed of light then the next big things in social network marketing are finding ways to adjust word of mouth marketing to a faster/instantaneous medium. The basics of word of mouth market are trust, interest and relevance. For a consumer to be prepared to share a product, idea, story, service etc with a friend they have to trust the source, be interested in the item/thing and think that it is relevant to others in their circle. Social network marketers need to have these three human elements at the centre of each campaign. The mistake that I see so often is jumping to a technological solution to marketing on social networking rather than the human elements. We can see this in the constant screw ups at Facebook with privacy as they launch new privacy crushing rules and products to give marketers access to customer data. My advice is to turn to the technology second and the human elements first. Establish trust then make something relevant and interesting. If you do, consumers will follow. The final thing to remember as a marketer in social networks - and the 21st century for that matter - is to accept that you have limited control over what your customers will say about your brand. The response to that lack of control is communication and discussion (ie engagement) not defamation, litigation and IP laws (ie stupidity).

Question - This year, we have already seen a couple of significant moves from Apple and Google towards mobile advertising. How do you foresee the impact on search and social media via mobile phones on the travel industry?

BOOT- Up until recently I have been a mobile denier. Mainly because every year since 2000 has been THE year that mobile would take over PC as the place for online action. Google's purchase of AdMob is the turning point. Not because when Google does something it means we have to take a trend seriously but because it means we know have non-transactional revenue streams for mobile activity. The problem for mobile has been that people stop at the credit card entry point. For a variety of reasons people that are completely comfortable putting their cc number into a PC or giving it to a bartender covered in tats and piercing in the off-line world have hesitated when asked to give it to a mobile phone. With Google betting on mobile advertising we have a biz model outline. A means for content and transactional companies to make money in mobile. That is the step that has been needed - more that the continued roll out of smart phone technology and more than the expansion of social networks.

more in part 2

In a day when everyone is talking Apple have a look at Google

Today is the day a half laptop, half smart-phone, all PR blitz shoved the State of the Union off the front page and sent Apple fan boys and girls running for their credit cards. The iPad has dominated the twitointerblogsphere all day. Desperately looking for a different angle on the story I was interested to look at the Google.com.au search results for "ipad". Below is a screen shot. Three very interesting things you can see from it.

1. Look at who is bidding on the term ipad. Two competing news outlets have bid on the term and are paying Google to drive traffic to news stories about the ipad. This is interesting first because I have not heard of a news company buying keywords before. Secondly the speed in which they put together the campaign. Presumably it was planned ahead of time and executed very early Sydney time.

2. Look at what is dominating the search results. The middle area is not links to two or three static websites. Instead there is a scrolling twitter feed updating every part second without the site having to refresh. True real time search integration. I saw this a few weeks ago for the first time with the "latest result" feed matching those search terms trending high on twitter. I like it but missing is the authority element to help determine which tweets/real time updates should be read.

3. Look at who is number one for search results and loving the traffic they are getting. Some South Australian property developer and owner of the ipad apartment complex in Adelaide is having the traffic day of the life as owners of ipad.com.au.

Take a look - screenshot below. Another change in the search industry hot on the heals of a hardware revolution.

2010 Predictions: The BOOT on what to expect for 2010 in the online travel industry

You think 2009 was full of surprises. Well fasten your safety belts, lock in the tray table and get ready for the turbulence, change and excitement that I expect 2010 to bring.

Here we go - I have five predictions for 2010 (two of them drawn from my contribution to the Tnooz post "Tnooz predictions for 2010"):

1. The non-refundable not enough: 2009 was the year of the deal. Lastminute specials returned and ADR/Ave ticket price fell through the floor, past the basement and almost reached magma. But the main (maybe the only) weapon in the 2009 deal war was the non-refundable. I predict that to win round two of the deal smackdown will require suppliers and intermediaries to come up with something more creative that just non-refundables The non-refundable is successful in driving demand while protecting "normal" pricing (ie BAR). But it is a crude weapon - targeting only those with no scope for a change in plans. Driving demand in 2010 will mean finding additional market segments. Which in turn will require more creativity and subtlety in pricing and deal structures than afforded by the non-refundable. Jeremy Philips in a review on WSJ.com of the book "Priceless" by William Poundstone ran an interesting quote that summarises the prediction here. As Robert Crandall, a former CEO of American Airlines, has said: "If I have 2,000 customers on a given route and 400 different prices, I'm obviously short 1,600.";
2. Year of the app: mobile may finally be here as a force in online travel but in 2010 the action will be in "apps" not phones. By app, I mean a piece of software designed to perform a function where the function is stand alone but can only exist as part of an operational eco-system. I am not thinking just iPhone here. Though the numbers are extraordinary. On March 27 2008 Apple launched its SDK to the public. Just eighteen months later (Nov 4) they announced more than 100,000 apps available for the iPhone and more than 2 billion downloads. But this is only part of the app story. On May 24 2007 Facebook opened up its platform for third party application development. On their stats page (checked 3 Jan 2010) they are claiming 500,000 apps. It does not stop at smart phones and social networks- HP have launched a printer with an interface and app store. The easy part of this prediction is to say that app numbers will grow again both in number (they will more than double in 2010) and in platform (more sites and more phones launching more of them). The real prediction is that I think the app trend equals a change in how web services are accessed. While not the death of the browser, the rise of the app is a sign that the browser is no longer an essential part of the Internet experience. Further proof that we have left the Web 1 era that defined web success through website stickiness and are well into the Web 2 world of syndication being the success measure. That confining your internet viewership plans to the computer and browser is a doomed strategy;
3. New marketing measurement metrics will emerge: The very mature online media and advertising world has settled into a comfortable metric duopoly of clicks and page views. Measuring audience reach and advertiser value by either the number of clicks generated or pages views. I predict for 2010 that we will see a new metric emerge. Not sure what it will be but it is clear to me that the market is looking for a measure of engagement rather than traffic. A way of showing marketers that consumers have taken in a brand message not just clicked on a link or maybe glanced at a flashing 468x60. The portals have had behavioural targeting technology for more than two years (Yahoo! has Blue Lithium, AOL has Tacoda) and Google is looking for the Next Big Thing to be video advertising (read more in interview with Rob Torres of Google reported on Tnooz). These are clear indicators of the need for a new metric;
   
4. Consolidation in the sector (surely!). This is a left over prediction from 2009. The conditions in the year of the GFC seemed perfect for consolidation. Stock prices were depressed, cost cutting acceptable and appetite for organically funded expansion low. But we saw virtually nothing that could be called a “big deal”. There was deal activity but at the lower end such as through regional tuck-ins (ie Travelocity buying Travelguru, and Ctrip buying EZtravel), small local deals (ie Wotif buying GoDo) and constant content site acquisition by TripAdvisor. With bankers chasing bonuses and companies chasing growth in 2010, I expect to see some consolidation in the big end of online travel town (from Tnooz post); and
   
5. Recommendations as the future of online travel: Search – as a means for customers finding what they want in online travel – is no longer as effective in 2009 as it was in 2005. Two causes – the explosion of content through the UGC revolution and consumers desire to seek answers to open ended questions (ie where should I go next) that are not easily answered by a search model based on taking you to one site. 2010 will see even more investment by start ups and established companies on different ways of searching and on methodologies for recommending. The long term future is the ability to generate a recommendation of one based on the individuals unique combination of desires, needs and interests of an individual at a particular point in time (EveryYou). The 2010 future is increased profiling, increased data collection and even more start up activity around search and discovery (from Tnooz post).

Close the door, buckle up, it is time to push back and take off. It is 2010 and the BOOT is back.

If you are interested - check out my 2009 predictions

thanks to pfala for the photo via flickr

Google’s Next Big Thing – Killing off the TV media business. More from interview with Rob Torres at PhoCusWright

Google hangs over every online industry conference. Their ability to deliver and take away traffic is unmatched. I have even argued that being Google friendly has overtaken being consumer friendly as the product development test for website design team

At this year's PhoCusWright conference TripAdvisor's Steve Kaufer said in jest "darn it everyone starts at Google, I want them to start at TripAdvisor". Google’s traffic dominance is here for so long as the search box is the number one starting point.

It was with this background Google's MD of Travel Rob Torres and YouTube's CMO Suzie Reider took the Center Stage of PhoCusWright to pitch the "Next Big Idea".

In a recent Tnooz post I included my notes from a post presentation 1:1 with Torres. In this post I will share my thoughts on the presentation itself.

The core of the next big thing from Google is actually close to the old big thing. Google was appealing to the audience and online marketeers to take advantage of the video assets of Google, the power of video as an advertising medium and (as Torres put it) to "stop thinking about [Google for] internet demand capture and start thinking about [Google as] a driver of brand awareness”. Put another way - use Google and use online video as brand building marketing channels rather than just looking for the direct marketing response metrics that has made search so powerful. While new for Google, the online marketer and media channel mix planner this is a clear move against old media- namely the TV advertising market. It is like a declaration of war by Google against TV stations with an air of "anything you can do I can do better".

Torres and Reider went on to describe a number of the new advertising and content products that were available in this shift. Not only is this a big challenge that Google is issuing to the TV industry (especially free to air), it is a big shift in the Google advertising mindset. In our interview later Torres stressed his belief that the dramatically lower CPM rates for online video advertising as against TV made TV ad spend an “ego buy” rather than a rational marketing decision. That said, he admitted that number of views is still the best measurement metric for online video advertising.

I think this is the right move for Google but will be full of challenges. They have the world’s most powerful online video asset and with PPC costs escalating they need to change the marketer’s mindset to one of brand over direct response. They have the reach and they have the video. But success will depend on providing a more advance measure for audience engagement than ratings or views. For marketers to make the switch from viewing search and online video as direct channel to a brand building channel they are going to need a prove brand growth. The tradditional media apporach of ratings and demographics will not be enough for the sales and data hungry online marketing executive. Google will need to develop a new and more detailed mechanism for proving the value of a view.

As a coda to this post - here is an extract of the stats quoted during the presentation:

• Visits to travel sites up 12%
• On average people 9 research session before bookings. Visiting 20.3 sites
• 56% of frequent travellers visit video sites
• 77% of internet users consume video (not sure how this works with above)
• 13% of [online?] travellers have uploaded a video
• 20 hours of video uploaded every minute to YT
• 450mm – size of YT monthly audience
• YT has 5000+ premium content partners (Nat Geo). They only serve adds on premium content providers
• 40mm impressions per day on YT
• 1 in 4 Internet users visit YT each month

Did not say where or how generated statistics.

1:1 interview with Rob Torres is here

Tnooz: Rob Torres 1:1 at PhoCusWright

Interview I conducted with Google's Travel MD Rob Torres at PhoCusWright has just gone live at Tnooz. We discuss online video, social media in the search stream, mobile and more. Here is the link for 1:1 with Rob at PCW.