Tips on online audience and usage in Indonesia

BOOT recommended read of the week is a blog post from Peter Goldsworthy of Admax Network from the iMedia Connection community site. Called "Insights into Indonesia's online audience" the post has seven insights into the market that may be of interest to you.

Marriott, Hilon and Omni reporting growth in sales via mobile - but I still believe that 2009 is not the year for mobile

Advertising Age's Rita Chang has a story in Advertising Age on increased mobile distribution for hotel chains called "Mobile Hotel Bookings Show ROT in Recession". Highlights from the story are:

• Marriott reporting US$2million in sales via mobile from Aug 2008 to 31 Dec 2008;
• Omni Hotels claiming 85% growth in traffic to the mobile in just six months - with conversion rates of 25% (compares to 3.5%-7% on the web version of their site); and
• Hilton Hotels talking about a 22% "return on investment" (whatever that means) including $1.4 million in bookings "in an average 100-day period" (again not sure what that means)
  

In my predictions post for 2009 I said that 2009 will not be the year for mobile in the travel industry because most distribution players will focus on their core products rather than new distribution ideas. This is not a popular prediction. PhoCuWright (respectfully) don't agree with me both through their Trends for 2009 report where they predict that "Mobile Arrives (finally) - and Gets Contextual" and in Norm Rose's reply to my prediction is here. My former Cendant colleagues at Hudson Crossing also don't agree in their Trends in Travel Investment 2009 report (pdf) where Mike McCormick predicts that Mobile will begin to "emerge, converge and finally arrive in travel". More than half of the commentators in Travolution's Predictions for 2009 also disagree with me.

The beauty of this Advertising Age report is that each of us can use the numbers to support our case. I can say that the results are so small and off such a low base that they show that mobile is still a year or more away from having the impact we have been waiting for since 2000. The pro-mobile camp can use the growth rates, the penetration of smart phones and the return of the last minute model - all before the end of Feb 2009- as proof that mobile is picking up speed and headed for victory in 2009.

So where do you stand? Am I mad to swim upstream against the other commentators on mobile in 2009?

Update - Jakob Neilsen has an interesting post on the usability on Internet via mobile called Mobile Web 2009 = Desktop Web 1998 that (I think) supports my view (found it at Hotelmarketing.com).

Hat tip to nakedbearmedia for sending me the Advertising Age link

thanks to Matthieu :: giik.net/blog over at flickr for the photo

Last minute travel is coming back - research report from Co-op Travel

The sixth of my five predictions for 2009 was that the economic conditions would mean that the last minute model would return in online travel distribution. This is where suppliers provide intermediaries (and direct channels) with heavily discounted inventory very close to the day of travel. I called this model as being "on hiatus" but not dead back in May 2008 because suppliers were doing so well they had no reason to risk future sales by discounting.

I do not like to fall for PR spin dressed up as research but I am starting to see more and more evidence of the likely return of last minute discounts. The most recent PR spun research piece comes from The Co-Operative Travel as picked up by Travelmole and e-tid in the UK (registration required for both). In short the survey of 850 customers found that more than half (57%) were waiting until between March and June to book their "traditional" UK summer holiday. 89% had not finalised their summer plans, with 65% still intending to go on holidays. In other words waiting until the last minute to book.

I am sure this is more driven by the economic circumstances of the traveller rather than some cunning plan to wait for suppliers to drop their prices. But the consequence will be to force suppliers to cut capacity (if they can) and drop rates. I expect to see more of this across different countries and distribution channels. We are now officially in last minute model rebirth watch here at BOOT central. Are you seeing any earlier evidence of the return?

thanks to lounger over at flickr for the great photo

TRAVELtech: Global Review proves what we all knew - Consumers are almost impossible to predict

At TRAVELtech we heard from Karen Grinter of Global Reviews - a company that undertakes usability surveys. She conducted a survey with 98 users on their web searching actions to search tests:

1. Find the cheapest flight from Melbourne to Perth from Tullamarine, arriving before midnight and with check-in

2. Find the cheapest hotel in Brisbane, 5 mins from Botanic Gardens, with a pool and for less than $400 for two nights.

Here is a quick summary of the results of the survey:

Search: 47% started with a search engine

• 32% used the search engine via an installed search bar;
• 37% entered in a brand name, a large proportion searched a full URL in Google. In effect treating it the means for using a browser;
  
• Of these 18% clicked on a paid advertisement - the rest clicked on organic listings; and
  
• 0% (yes ZERO percent) looked at the second page.

Aggregaters: 44% went to an aggregater. In a specific Wotif Example Grinter noted that despite there being two places in the Wotif search results for the consumer to view a map. Not a single clicked on that link. Instead they left the site and looked to Google Maps or Whereis and sometimes (but not always) returned to Wotif to book. Consumers simply did not see the map links despite what industry people would view and very prominent links.

Suppliers: 6% went direct to a supplier (in the first instance) but 45% of aggregater visitors (in the case of the air ticket) indicated they would normally go from the aggregater to the supplier to book to avoid paying booking fees and because they trusted the results more.

Themes

• All about the first page in SEO
• Air aggregaters and buying traffic and losing sales to suppliers
• Consumers continue to miss buttons and tabs that we think are clear and obvious
  

TRAVELtech: Webjet CEO Noon calls the AU market sales of Expedia, Zuji and more

Final speaker of the first session was Webjet CEO Richard Noon. Had a great slide that I was able to quickly copy down to share with you. He showed his estimation of the annual Gross Bookings of major full service OTAs in Australia. Here is that graph as I copied it.

If you are interested in the Australian turnover of Webjet, Expedia, Bestflights, Zuji, Lastminute.com.au, travel.com.au and online for flight centre check it out.



He prepared a formula using comparative page views and PhoCusWright estimates of the Australia online travel market. He took the page views of each of the players locally and then apportioned gross bookings from the PhoCusWright estimates of total Australian OTA sales.

Later during the panel session these numbers were put to each of the bosses of Zuji and Expedia.

Expedia AU MD Arthur Hoffman dismissed the $80mm estimate for Expedia saying that this was a very pessimistic view. That actual number was "far north of that".

Zuji CEO Scott Blume - "took the fifth" when asked about the $30mm estimate. Saying that they do not break out their bookings.

TRAVELtech: Kicking off with stats from the Airport Economist

Fist in my series of live blogging from the TRAVELtech Year of Living Dangerously conference.
Opening session led by Tim Harcout from Austrade. Also known as the Airport Economist basd on this book of the same name. He is opening up the conference by giving us a view of the Australian economy and whether or not local travel companies should be fearing for the worst given the view from the US and Europe over economic concerns.

As Harcout described it, the world economy has "...gone from the sub-prime to the ridiculous". But Tim tried to reassure all that the Australia economy is almost unstoppable with the longest expansion in history with very low unemployment and very strong terms of trade.

The part I found most interesting from his entertaining presnetation was the statics that shows that departures out of Australia numbered more than arrivals in 2007 and so far in 2008 for the first time since trackings started. In simple terms more Australians are leaving the country to holiday/travel overseas that visitors entering the country. Does not mean a complete disaster for inbound players are there is still growth for inbound but for the first time the outbound providers have the upper hand in Australia.