Sunday, June 21, 2009

GFC presure finally comes to WTF - analyst rates Wotif.com as "under perform"

Wotif Group (ASX:WTF) has been a stand out Australian stock for as long as anyone can remember. Well at least since March 2006 when it burst onto the market at a pre-float price of $2.00 but closing the first day at $3.32. Has been a roller coaster ride since then. The first two years was all up up up, topping out at just below $6 a share. Then early to mid 08 saw a slump back below $3 a share. Recently the stock has rallied with the rest of the market to be around the $4.50 range ($4.50 close yesterday). Throughout that time I have not seen an analyst say a bad word about the stock (despite a P/E ratio in the twenties).

Now today we have a different voice. Senior Analyst at LINWAR securities James Bales has just published a research note on Wotif called "Check Out Time". In that note he sets a target price of $3.70 - 18% less than the current value. I can't share the whole research note with you as that is something LINWAR reserves for the clients but I can share some of the top level conclusions that Bales used to support his rating of Under Perform. Here are some extracts from his conclusions
"WTF trades on a significant premium to our DCF valuation. It also trades on a premium to larger well-performed global online travel peers in an industry which rewards scale.


Industry estimates of Average Daily Rate (ADR) declines are approaching double digit levels worldwide. The decline may be more moderate in Australia but Wotif expected low single digit rate decline in 2H09. Intense rate pressure has meant hotel chains are seeking ways of discounting prices without impacting brand - OTA’s offer this capability.


It appears Asian destination markets are holding up well [for WTF]– eg: Thailand, Bali. Source markets such as China post-Olympics and Japan appear weaker. In these areas global giants have a significant advantage over WTF. WTF is trying to grow an Asian business with no local language capability and just one small existing market (AU/NZ) from which to draw clients."
That said, Bales still supports the profit estimates from Wotif. As he says
"NPAT guidance of at least $42m was in line with our forecasts. This is no surprise given US 1Q09 results from Online Travel Agents (OTA’s). Our forecasts are unchanged, anticipating strong growth in FY10."
I agree with James analysis, especially on international expansion. That said hard to be too negative about a company that just upped its full year forecast.

That do you think? Will there finally be pressure on Wotif coming or is $4.50 a share just fine thank you very much?

Collected BOOT & Tim Hughes Interviews and Podcasts

You can absolutely call this a vanity post. Here are a list (in date order) of places you can find your BOOT correspondent being interviewed or delivering a presentation (assuming all the links work).
  1. "WebInTravel pre conference interview" Sept 2009;
  2. "Is it Possible To Make Money Online" Feb 2009;
  3. On stage at WIT 2008 with Philip Wolf and Ram Badrinathan of PhoCusWright Oct 2008;
  4. BOOT Presentation at Eyefortravel Asia Pacific Sept 2008 (with audio);
  5. The BOOT on an IAG Podcast - Don't Panic Sept 2008 ; and
  6. BOOT pre-conference interview for the Eyefortravel Asia Pacific conference April 2008.
  7. BOOT presenting and panel hosting at WebInTravel Oct 2010
  8. BOOT hosting panel on Social Media at WebInTravel 2011

Thursday, June 11, 2009

Roshan Mendis replaces Scott Blume as Zuji Boss (Travelocity in Asia)

Have been deep in work so missed the story from a a week ago that Travelocity in Asia (operating under the brand name Zuji) has a new Boss. Scott Blume was CEO for about six years leading up until 1 June this year. Roshan Mendis is the new internal appointment. He is not listed as CEO on the Zuji site, instead they list him as President of Zuji and Regional Vice President of Travelocity Asia Pacific. Prior to this role, Mendis was the Zuji Director of Supplier Relationships.

Siew Hoon over at the WebInTravel blog has an interview with Scott Blume on his thoughts on life post Zuji and the outlook for the industry for the rest of 2009.

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Tips on online audience and usage in Indonesia

BOOT recommended read of the week is a blog post from Peter Goldsworthy of Admax Network from the iMedia Connection community site. Called "Insights into Indonesia's online audience" the post has seven insights into the market that may be of interest to you.

Tripbase CEO Reuven Levitt Interview Part 2 - tips for start-ups raising funds

This is Part 2 in my notes from an interview with Tripbase CEO Reuven Levitt. Part 1 was a review of the product and a discussion of the business of travel inspiration and discovery.

In this part I will share with you some of the interesting insights and comments from Levitt on this experiences in raising funding in the Valley. The trigger for the interview series was Tripbase securing $2 million in series A funding.

Tripbase is not the first time the Levitt has raised money for start-ups. In his last venture he raised $12 million through the "usual" VC routes. I asked him what advice he would have for other start-ups looking for cash. Here are his top three tips:
  1. Build a prototype before you do anything else: To attract the two key elements to success (people and money) a start-up needs to build a proof of concept as quickly as possible. The fastest way to do that is to use open source technologies. It is very important to get "30%-50% of the way" to a product before looking for money. Levitt says that a lot of start ups hold back on doing a fast build of a prototype for fear that they will be copied. Levitt's view is that copying is not the area to worry about. He says there is more of a risk in going slow and hidden rather than fast and a little more open.
  2. Bootstrapping is critical: Levitt could not over emphasise the importance of being tight with money as a start-up. The phrase he used regularly was "focus on spend". Putting this another way "Start ups do not tcome out of luxury. Investors need to see hunger."; and
  3. Start-ups often look for funding in the wrong places: Levitt believes that "private people with deep pockets" are the best places to look for funding, rather than VCs. On location, there is "no comparison to being in the Valley" because "by sheer numbers you will meet people". The only draw back of the Valley is that "it is very competitive...lots of people competing for money...lots of options on where to invest".
Any other tips out there from other entrepreneurs? While writing up these notes I was also reminded of a post from Jeremy Liew of Valley VC group Lightspeed Ventures on Five things start ups must spend their money on.

Sunday, June 7, 2009

Business Traveller Tip - getting through airport security fast and recombobulating in style

Second in my series of tips for the business traveller is how to get through pre-flight security as quickly as you can. There are a lot of elements to getting through security. Things are unambitiously tighter and more stressful in the post-9/11 world. A few simple things will cut time and stress levels:
  1. Get your documents ready before you get in the queue: Surprising how often I see people surprised when asked by a uniformed TSA Agent, security agent, representative of Her Majesties Government, stern looking person in a sterner looking uniform etc to see a traveller's boarding pass and passport. Get yourself a travelling pouch/wallet that keeps your passport, boarding pass and other travel documents in one place, put it in your dominant hand (ie my right hand) and give the right documents to the right person as quickly and orderly as you can (see also rule 7);
  2. Choose who you line up behind: The speed in which you can get through the queue depends most on the speed of the people ahead of you in the queue. You need to do some profiling of the people in front of you before you join a line. Avoid families and the elderly - they take too long to get their jackets, shoes and bags into and out of the scanner. Avoid anyone carrying anything metal (crutches, canes, prams) - there will inevitably be delays in them putting them through the scanner. Avoid large groups of people (school kids, tour groups, sporting groups, air crews) - they will be taking too much time helping each other out and sorting out who owns what. Basically look for other packs of travelling alone, serious looking business travellers;
  3. Select the right toiletry pack and switch to shave oil: The liquid rules are a real pain and the TSA apply the rules in the weirdest of ways. The obvious advice is do not pack anything in a bottle larger than100mm (3oz) and put them in a clear zip lock bag. But that is a given. I have three other pieces of advice for you. Firstly - carry a spare zip lock bag. If you lose your original or it breaks you will need a spare or else have to do a lot of negotiating or last minute running around to do. Secondly - be selective as to toiletry bag you use. I was give a great one a couple of years ago when "involuntarily" upgraded to first class on British Airways. It is a rectangular soft box shape with zip covering three sides of the lid. Allows me to open the toiletry pack so as to fully expose all of the contents for scanning (in a zip lock bag) but keeps it neat, orderly and safe from breaking bags. The security agents are happy as they get to see what they need to see, and I am happy because I have eliminated the chance of a break in the zip lock bag causing an awful mess in my bag. I searched for a photo online to show you but unfortunately could not find one. I hope the description is enough. Thirdly - keep your liquids to a minimum by doing the following. Save all of the small toothpastes you get on board. They are the perfect size for taking on trips. Ditto for moisturiser. Don't pack shampoo- use those provided by the hotel. Finally for travelling switch from using shaving cream or foam and a separate after shave balm to using shave oil. Shaving oil (ie King of Shaves Kinexium Oil) takes getting used to but once you do you can carry hundreds of shaves worth of oil in a 15ml bottle. It can be used as a post-shave balm as well as an alternative to foam/gel. Only downside is that it clogs up your razor blade - so you will go through blades faster. But is worth it for being able to ditch two large liquid bottles for one small one;
  4. Slip ons not laces: Your shoes should be slip ons not lace ups to speed on and off;
  5. Put everything in your bag: Before you get to queue (ie at check-in or in the taxi) put your wallet, coins, mobile, blackberry, pens, everything in you pockets into your carry on bag. Don't keep things in your pocket as you will just have to take them out and put them back in again;
  6. Store, keep and hoard express passes: Plenty of airports have express queues for those carrying special passes. Often the special pass is nothing more than a boarding pass for first of business class. But equally as often (ie Sydney airport) they are a separate document handed out at check in. I hoard these and keep spares in my travel wallet. You never know when you are going to need a spare (ie flying economy with the family). You will only realise the true value of having a spare when you have one;
  7. Smile: Security people get frowned at all day. Give them a smile.
  8. Afterwards - take a break and recombobulate.
Do you have any other tips to share? If you are looking for the TSA's official tip list look here.

PS - if you have no idea what the references to Recombobulation mean then read this post.

thanks to Larsz over a flickr for the photo

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Tripbase CEO Reuven Levitt Interview Part 1 - travel discovery, the travel genome and the magic of the slider

Am loving the recent run of interviews that I have been doing especially in the travel discovery and inspiration space. I have finally had a chance to write up my notes of an interview with Reuven Levitt of inspiration start up Tripbase. The interview and story came in part from my series of posts on the travel discovery and inspiration companies and part because Tripbase has just closed a round of series A funding, securing $2 million from private investors. I am going am going to do two posts on the interview. This first one will be on the company and the market. In part two I will share our discussion on start up fund raising.

What is Tripbase?

We have been talking on the BOOT about the different approaches that companies are choosing for generating recommendations. There is the criteria based selection process of Triporati, the event based selection of Joobili and the deal/price hunting approach of Voyij.

In Tripbase's case they have tried to distil trip recommendations critera to just five parameters - Nightlife, Dining, Shopping, Nature and Attractions. A search is then based on selecting your starting point (ie location), dates and (through using sliders) the relative positives and negatives of preferences the traveller has on each of the five parameters. For example I searched for a Spring (October) holiday from Sydney for a family of four with the following slider preferences hoping to reflect a "family" perspective (picture)


The initial recommendations in order were: Auckland, Brisbane, Canberra, Tokyo and Melbourne. [What is interesting about that is that the next trip I have booked for the family (Easter next year) is to the South Island of New Zealand].

Search results are one thing but it is the refinement that is critical for recommendations. There is a need for a balance - enough to allow the consumer to find what they want but not too much to be overwhelming. The main refinement available from Tripbase are budget, weather and continent (Levitt is promising more).

Here are the results (picture)



I like the idea of the price refinement. That said, I moved the value slider a lot and did not get presented with a much greater variety of recommendations.

Where did they idea come from, where does the data come from?

Levitt and the rest of the Tripbase team came to the travel recommendation area not from a travel background but from a history of computational biology and building recommendation engines in the biochemistry field. This led him to attempt to build a generic recommendation engine and commence work on taking that engine and modifying it for travel. As he described it to me Tripbase is made up of two components rather than one. The first is the data centre and information collection mechanism. The second is the Tripbase website itself which sits above the data centre, providing and interface for customers to access the information.

They call the data centre the Travel Genome Project (not to be confused with Triporati's Vacation Genome Project). Levitt is claiming the TGP indexes and scrapes over 3,000 websites and therefore up to 22 million reviews. As Levitt put it "we use artificial intelligence techniques to make "sense" of a destination" drawn from the huge number of data sources being scraped and searched. So while Triporati is using technology and people/editors hand in hand to determine the results, Tripbase is relying on computational data analysis to sort through the overwhelming amount of data available - including the need to estimate prices and costs.

Thoughts on the market and monetisation

He has plans for both elements of the product and there are clients for both. At this stage the plans for Tripbase are further distribution and customer experience refinement (ie general competition in the discovery and inspiration space). For the Travel Genome Project plans, he was keeping his cards close to his chest, not giving away too much. If it is true that he has with this product a unique (or near unique) way of indexing destination information then he has a powerful tool for distribution through partners. But was not sharing a plan as to how he would take advantage.

Tripbase are not yet focused on monetisation and are in no rush. Levitt says he is not under revenue pressure yet and he wants to get the product right first. He contrasts this to the Big Four (Expedia, Orbitz, Travelocity and Priceline) who he saw as struggling to innovate and grow because they are, as Levitt put it, "struggling to focus on costs and spend marketing money while trying to cut back on fees and keep the business growing"

My Take

The basis of the product is an automated way of indexing enormous amounts of travel data through algorithms that link descriptive data, price data and sorting criteria. Very interesting. But there is still much to do before the product is a hit. While the search process is easy, I found that the refinement process did not produce the variety of options that I would have expected. The search process was much less complicated than Triporati but the results from Triporati were more creative, unexpected and intriguing. That said, it is hard to say which recommendation I would actually be more likely to act on- the creative unexpected one (Triporati) or the proven more anticipated on (Tripbase). Also I liked the the "cost per day" and average hotel and flight cost information provided with each recommendation. The price estimations seemed very accurate (as far as I could tell) and varied with time of year/season.

Monetisation will be a challenge but not an impossible one. As Levitt admitted the travel inspiration business is a "distance away" from purchasing behaviour and therefore will take time to target to advertisers.

In summary the product has made a great start. Some challenges to overcome but I am definitely seeing some a very entertaining and competitive battle starting to emerge between the different discovery and inspiration players. Do you have any thoughts on this space and the emerging battle lines?

Update - part 2 of interview here