Sunday, March 14, 2010

Agoda's 2009 Turnover / Bookings was US$244 million (according to Citigroup)

I am always on the watch for Agoda results here are the BOOT as they have been hard to find. You will have seen the stellar results for Pricline in this announcement and elsewhere, showing >50% growth in Q4 09 over 08. In the transcript from the earnings announcement I could not find any details about Agoda's contribution to the performance. Finally, via CitigroupGEO we have an estimate on Agoda's turnover and gross bookings. Here is a table with the last 6 quarters of results for Agoda estimated by Mark S. Mahaney of Citigroup (link to PDF here)

Means Citi estimated Agoda generated $244MM in bookings/turnover in 2009 (3% of Pricline's total). Up 100% on 2008. Q4 2009 was estimated at US$78mm up 111% on Q4 2008. Other information from the note:
  • Confirmed purchase terms. Acquisition in 2007 for $16MM in cash
    and an earn-out of up to $142MM, payable in 2011 upon Agoda reaching
    undisclosed Bookings and Earnings targets in 2010.
  • Strongest search engine ranking markets - China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Thailand. Weakest - Australia, India, and New Zealand.
  • Projects Agodas gross bookings at $433mm in 2010, $606mm in 2011 and $758mm in 2012; and
  • Models and aggressive scenario where $1bb in gross bookings for Agoda is possible in 2011 if online hotel penetration in APAC increases from 25% to 37.5% and Agoda;s share of the market increases from 3.5% to 6%.
This Citi report is the most detailed analysis of Agoda I have seen to date. Definitely worth a read.

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